Chad Aldeman's blog

  • Let’s say you are running a school district. Would you raise teacher compensation (salaries and retirement benefits) by 5-8 percent for all of those who stay less than 20 years in exchange for lowering compensation by up to 3.4 percent for 38-year veterans?
  • The big news out of the latest Public Education Finances Report is official confirmation that school districts spent less money per student in 2010-11 than they had the year before, the first one-year decline in nearly four decades. It’s worth taking some time to reflect on that fact, but the full report is also a valuable source of data on state and district revenues and expenditures and the entirety of the $600 billion public K-12 education industry. One key takeaway is that employee benefits continue to take on a rising share of district expenditures.
  • Conventional wisdom says that public sector pensions are far too optimistic in assuming an 8-percent investment return. Indeed, the stock market has far underperformed that goal lately, leaving pension plans in precarious financial shape.

    But, if we expand our time frame to a longer horizon of, say, 25 years, it turns out that conventional wisdom is false. Using actual investment return results from state pension plans as of the end of 2012, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators found that median investment returns actually exceeded state targets over longer time periods:

    5 years: 2.9 percent

    10 years: 7.5 percent

    20 years: 7.9 percent

    25 years: 8.9 percent

    This 25-year period included the bull market of the 1990s, one of the longest economic expansions in modern history, but it also included the subsequent crash, the disappointing 2000s, and the Great Recession of 2007-09. It wasn’t a “typical” 25-year period, but no 25-year period is typical. In fact, if you look at the performance of a balanced investment portfolio over long time horizons, it almost always beats state investment assumptions. As is often repeated, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but we shouldn’t ignore it, either. It’s tempting to focus on how bad the last five years have been, but it would be odd to argue that we should pay attention to only very recent history while disregarding the longer perspective.

    So why are state pension plans in such poor financial shape today? There are two main reasons. One is that at the end of the 1990s, when state pension plans looked like they were in great shape, many states adopted benefit enhancements. State legislators looked at well-funded retirement plans, buoyed by an amazing stock market run, and decided they could support higher benefit payments. They couldn’t. Inevitably, short-term thinking put them in trouble today.

    Second, the plans suffer from tremendous volatility. Investment returns now contribute about two-thirds of a pension plan’s earnings in a given year. When they turn negative during an economic crash, plan funding falls precipitously. But looking at a state pension plan after a recession and declaring it financially insolvent is no different than spendthrift state legislators expanding benefits at the end of the 1990s. They’re both driven by short-term thinking.

  • The research field of teacher pensions has been a relative backwater, but lately it just keeps getting more interesting. Yesterday, the Fordham Institute released a new paper from Marty West and Matt Chingos analyzing a 2002 policy change in Florida which allowed teachers to choose between a traditional defined benefit pension plan and a 401k-style defined contribution plan. The authors were able to track who chose which plan, what subject they taught, how effective they were in the classroom, how long they remained teaching, and whether the pension plan’s structure had any effect on retention.

    Perhaps not surprisingly, they found that math and science teachers, teachers with advanced degrees, and charter school teachers were all more likely to opt for the portable defined contribution plan. These teachers may enter the profession not planning to stay for long or, in the case of charters, may anticipate switching to another school that’s not enrolled in the Florida defined benefit system (Florida charters have a choice on whether to participate or not).

    Important, they did not find any differences in effectiveness between those who chose the defined benefit plan and those who chose the defined contribution plan, but they did find differences in attrition rates. Teachers who opted into the defined contribution plan were one percentage point more likely to leave before their second year and nine percentage points more likely to leave after their fifth year. This will give fodder to the crowd that claims that defined benefit plans do a better job of retaining employees than 401k-style defined contribution plans and support those seeking to preserve the status quo in most other states.

    But wait, there’s more to this story. If you care at all about the thousands of teachers who will one day become ex-teachers, this paper puts numbers on just how many there are and how much money they’re losing. In the seven years of the study, Florida districts hired 92,000 first-time teachers. The authors found that roughly 40 percent of these beginning teachers stay less than six years, the amount of time Florida required a teacher to be employed before becoming eligible for pension benefits. By not meeting the vesting requirement, the authors estimate each of those ex-teachers will lose out on retirement savings of up to $27,784 in today’s dollars.

    It was outside the scope of the study, but Florida recently lengthened the vesting period from six to eight years, meaning even more teachers are likely to become ex-teachers before qualifying for pension benefits, leaving even more money on the table. (See how Florida’s vesting requirements compare to other states here.)

  • According to important new research, teacher pensions—both how generous they are and how they are structured—have important effects on the quality of the teaching workforce. This research provides some insight into how the looming retirement of the Baby Boom generation may affect students.

    Last week the Center for Retirement Research released a research brief looking at whether teacher salaries and teacher pensions affect the quality of new teacher hires, measured by SAT scores. Even after controlling for things like the poverty level of the school, minority enrollment, gender, and location of the teacher’s preparation program, it found that teachers from more highly selective institutions sought out teaching jobs with higher compensation. Teachers preferred both higher salaries and higher retirement spending, which is somewhat surprising given that retirement costs are often assumed to be opaque to employees, especially younger ones who won’t be thinking of retirement for many years.

    In the mid-1990s, Illinois offered an early retirement incentive which allowed employees to purchase extra years of creditable service for calculating their retirement benefit. Over a two-year period, Illinois lost 10 percent of its teachers, most of whom were experienced teachers, as the early retirement incentive led to a threefold increase in the retirement of experienced teachers in the 1994 and 1995 school years.  Across the state, average teacher experience declined and the number of new teachers increased substantially.

    In Education Week, Sarah Sparks covered a new study looking at the Illinois early retirement program. In a nutshell, even though the “5+5”program led to huge numbers of older, more experienced teachers retiring, it did no harm academically. In fact, student achievement may have gone up.

    All else equal, and since we know that teacher effectiveness rises with experience, we would have expected student achievement to go down. Yet, despite the influx of novice teachers, student math and English test scores either stayed the same or went up. Importantly, those results held true for low-income, minority, and low-achieving students as well. 

    This blog entry first appeared on The Quick and the Ed.